It’s not if interest rates will rise but when

COLLEGE STATION, Texas – Feb. 1, 2010 – According to Dr. Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, mortgage interest rates are low right now but don’t expect that to last. When the government quits buying mortgage-backed securities, rates will head up and away.

Dotzour says that mortgage rates were low at the end of 2009 because “the global consensus among bondholders appeared to be that inflation will remain low in the United States for an extended period. This caused the ten-year U.S. Treasury rate to fall to between 3.2 and 3.6 percent for much of the second half of 2009.”

With extraordinary levels of federal deficit spending, Dotzour says it is unlikely that the low-inflation scenario will be popular when the economy starts to rebound. Consumers should expect mortgage rates to rise when signs of improvement appear.

A second factor contributing to the low mortgage rates is the Federal Reserve Bank’s unprecedented purchase of nearly all the mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2009, he adds. Totaling more than $1 trillion for the year, this program has been extended through the end of March 2010.

“The Fed has never done this before in its history,” says Dotzour. “They are doing this to stimulate the economy by keeping mortgage rates as low as possible. When the Fed stops buying these securities from Fannie and Freddie, mortgage rates are likely to increase, and possibly quite abruptly.”

How far will rates go up when the Fed terminates its buying program? Dotzour says that question is difficult to answer precisely because this has never been done before; but many experts think that rates could move up one-half to 1 percent.

“The combination of extraordinarily low mortgage rates and current price levels are making homes extremely affordable to American families. In fact, national and Texas housing affordability indices indicate that homes are more affordable than ever. But this will not last. When the economy recovers and the Fed stops purchasing mortgages, rates will rise.”

To read more on the subject, see Dotzour’s article “Rate Expectations” in the January 2010 issue of Tierra Grande magazine at http://recenter.tamu.edu/tgrande/.

Springtime house hunters out early thanks to tax credit

By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY

The springtime spurt in home buying may hit before the snow melts this year as buyers scramble to meet an April 30 tax credit deadline.

The spring buying season typically takes off in March and runs through May. But buyers who want to claim this year's tax credit — up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat buyers — must have signed purchase contracts by April 30. And they have to complete the deal by June 30.

"I expect the buying season will be moved up," says Jim Gillespie, CEO of Coldwell Banker. Sales "are going to take off in February and March and really take off in April. ... My concern is that the move-up buyer hasn't thought what they need to do. Their window is really short. They have to coordinate closing dates."

The average time it takes to get a home loan processed is about eight weeks now — two weeks more than it used to be, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The tax credit's impact on 2010 home sales is uncertain. Some economists expect the credit to pull sales that would have occurred later in the year into the first half.

"The tax credit will absolutely have an effect," says Pete Flint, CEO of Trulia, a residential real estate search engine. "It is going to shift demand from the later part of the year to the first part. January and February will be very strong. The next three months, there will be a surge in demand."


The credit is pulling in some consumers now.

"I'm actually in the middle of house shopping, and I decided to do it now so that I could get the $8,000 tax credit," says Amity Gay, 26, who's looking for a cottage-style house in Tallahassee.

Sellers should be prepared to appeal to first-time home buyers, who still make up the majority of buyers, according to Pat Lashinsky, president and CEO of ZipRealty.

And buyers should expect rising prices in some markets, including San Diego, Dallas, Minneapolis, Chicago and Washington, D.C.

At MetLife Home Loans, buyers are being preapproved now for new housing developments; an increase in demand is being attributed to the expanded tax credit.

"Our spring market got moved up at least two months because of this," says Kent Geschwender, branch manager.

The tax credit was scheduled to expire on Dec. 1, 2009, but was extended and expanded by Congress.

FAQs on the Homebuyer Tax Credit

Here are some of the most frequently asked questions on the changes to the Homebuyer Tax Credit

Question: Existing homeowner credit: Must the new house cost more than the old house?

Answer: No. Thus, for example, individuals who move from a high cost area to a lower cost area who meet all eligibility requirements will qualify for the $6500 credit.

Question: I am an existing homeowner. On October 25, 2009, I signed a contract to purchase a
new home. I have lived in my current home for more than 5 consecutive years and am within the new income limits. I will go to settlement on November 20. If President Obama has signed the bill by the time I go to settlement, will I qualify for the new $6500 tax credit?

Answer: Yes. The existing homeowner credit goes into effect for purchases after the date of enactment (when the bill is signed). There is no reference to the date of contract for the new credit. The provision looks solely to the date of purchase, which is generally the date of settlement.

Question: I am a firsttime homebuyer but was not within the prior income limits at the time I entered into my contract to purchase on October 30, 2009. I will be covered, however, by the new income limits. If the new rules have been signed into law by the time I go to settlement, will I be eligible for a credit?

Answer: Yes. The new income limitations go into effect as soon as the President has signed the bill.
The income limit and other eligibility rules will look to your status as of the date of purchase,
which is the settlement date. So if the new rules have been signed when you go to settlement,
you should be eligible for the credit (or a portion of the credit if you're within the phaseout
range).

Question: I am an eligible existing homeowner. I have a fair amount of equity in my home. I
have found a home with a nonnegotiable price of $825,000. Will I be able to use any
of the $6500 tax credit?

Answer: No. The $800,000 cap on the cost of the purchased home is firm at $800,000. Any amount
above $800,000 makes the home ineligible for any portion of the credit. The $800,000 is an
absolute ceiling.

Question: I owned my home for 10 years, but sold it two years ago year and have been renting
since. If I purchase a home, will I be eligible for the $6500 tax credit if I meet all the
other eligibility tests?

Answer: Yes. Because you lived in the home for more than 5 consecutive years of the previous 8, you
will qualify for the $6500 credit. For example, Say John and his wife bought a home in 2000
and lived there until 2008 when he got a divorce. Whether John has been renting or bought in
the interim, he WOULD INDEED be eligible for the credit because he owned a home and
occupied it as his principal residence for 5 consecutive years out of the last 8 years. The
keyword here is "consecutive." As long as he lived in that house for 5 years straight what he
did since 3 years doesn't impact eligibility.

Question: I am an eligible firsttime homebuyer. I entered into a contract to purchase on November 1, 2009. Do I have to go to closing before December 1? How does the extension date affect me?

Answer: You do not have to close before December 1. Once the legislation has been signed, it will be as if the Nov 30 date had never existed. Therefore, so long as the contract settles before April 30
(or July 1, worst case), the purchaser will be eligible for the credit.

GREAT NEWS!!!

Homebuyer Credit Gets New Life

Key lawmakers in the Senate have tentatively agreed to extend the existing $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers and also offer a new $6,500 credit for existing homeowners who have lived in their current residence for a consecutive five-year period in the past eight years.


Home buyers must be under contract by April 30, 2010, and close before July 1. House Democrats have expressed concern about the cost of the tax credit for the government, and allegations of abuse have resulted in an IRS probe of the program.



Source: Wall Street Journal, Corey Boles and John D. McKinnon (10/29/09)

So Grateful...

I am just so grateful for the fabulous clients that continue to grace my life! Thanks Jeff and Elizabeth!

Dear Jen,

Jeff and I would like to thank you for the amazing job you did selling our home and helping us find the house of our dreams.
In this market, I cannot believe you were able to sell our home in 43 days!
With Jeff traveling every week, I was nervous handling this process. But you explained every detail. every document so I could feel comfortable with my decision. I knew I could call you or meet with you anytime I needed.
Thanks to you, we are in the home that we will live in for the rest of our lives. You still make yourself available to us, checking in to make sure we are happy. I think you go above and beyond most real estate agents, and we are truly grateful.

Sincerely,
Jeff and Elizabeth Oldham

Time to Get Off of the Fence!

Prospective Buyers have only FIVE more months to take advantage of the $8,000 First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit. As interest rates start to climb, NOW is the time to get off the fence and make your move!

For more information regarding the Tax Credit, visit: http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/index.html

May Existing-Home Sales Continue Rising Trend

Washington, June 23, 2009

Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66 million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected an improvement. “Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates,” he said. “First-time buyers also are being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 4.86 percent in May from a record low 4.81 percent in April; the rate was 6.04 percent in May 2008. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed at 5.38 percent; data collection began in 1971.

Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5 percent to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in April.

Yun said the appraisal problem is serious. “Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales,” he said. “In the past month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected.”

An NAR practitioner survey in May showed first-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of transactions, and that the number of buyers looking at homes is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago. “This is the time of year when we see large increases in the number of repeat buyers, who are benefitting from sales to entry-level buyers,” Yun said. “Investors appear less active, but are more prevalent in areas with large price corrections.”

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said appraisals and the tax credit are key issues. “To maximize the potential for a housing recovery and subsequent economic recovery, we need realistic appraisals that are based on proper comparisons and done by a local specialist,” he said. “In addition, the first-time buyer tax credit should be expanded to all buyers of primary homes regardless of income. Extending the credit into 2010 would allow more time for the market to catch up with underlying demand, in part because many families with children, who normally time their purchase based on school year considerations, do not have enough time to move before the start of school in late August.

“Freeing a pent-up demand in housing will absorb inventory at a faster pace, strengthen communities and stabilize home prices earlier,” McMillan said.

The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $173,000 in May, down 16.8 percent from a year earlier. Distressed properties, which declined to 33 percent of all sales in May from 45 percent in April, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.

“The decline in the distressed sales share likely results from an increase of repeat buyers in May,” Yun said. “First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed sales.”

Single-family home sales rose 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in May from a pace of 4.17 million in April, but are 3.0 percent below the 4.38 million-unit level in May 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $172,900 in May, down 16.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000 units in May from 490,000 in April, but are 8.9 percent below the 571,000-unit level in May 2008. The median existing condo price4 was $173,800 in May, down 21.9 percent from a year earlier.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 3.9 percent to an annual level of 800,000 in May, but are 10.1 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $243,600, which is 12.5 percent below May 2008.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.0 percent in May to a pace of 1.09 million but are 4.4 percent below May 2008. The median price in the Midwest was $145,800, which is 10.4 percent lower than a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9 percent from May 2008.

Existing-home sales in the West slipped 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.14 million in May, but are 11.8 percent higher than May 2008. The median price in the West was $197,700, down 30.6 percent from a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.